Ignorance
As Arthur Benjamin mentions in his TED Talk, statistics is not the peak of our math curriculum, yet it has the most real life application. Thus, it is all around us but it is relatively unknown to the average person.
In addition to the innate misinterpretation of statistics, people often experience a psychological block to statistics. Due to their complexity, many people find statistics confusing. As Peter Olofsson said in his book Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, "Many people perceive statistics as boring, many also perceive probability as scary.” In addition, it is common for people to put their trust in experts because statistics are complicated and relatively specialized. To prove this, I designed a survey to find out how my peers view statistics and statistical reasoning. My survey was taken by men and women between 16 and 75 years old. I have highlighted some of the results, and what they mean in terms of the way people view statistics.
Knowledge without Understanding
The circular pie graph to the left displays the percentage of survey takers who have been exposed to mathmatical statistics, asking "Have you ever taken a statistics course?" Over half have taken a statistics course in their educational career. Also, around 35% have not taken a formal statistics class, but has statistical knowledge from another class. However, as the bar graph below shows, the highest percentage of people surveyed rated themselves at a 3, or an average understanding, when asked to rate their statistical understanding. Thus, it can be concluded that although most people have been exposed to statistics, they still do not fully grasp the concepts.
What is Statistics?
I asked my survey takers, "What does statistics mean to you?" Then, I analyzed the results, and used a software that illustrates which words and phrases are most common.
Some of the most common words were data, numbers, information, collecting, and analysis. These are all crucial terms in the field of statistics, which allows me to conclude that people have a good idea of what statistics is all about!
Popular Descriptors
When asked, "Please select every word that you feel describes the area of statistics," here are the results!
Although Over 75% of people found statistics important and around 70% found statistics interesting, yet 65% described them as challenging. This proves the goal of my study: to bridge a gap so that what is interesting no longer has to be challenging.
The Emotional Effect
An interesting part of my survey was seeing the responses people gave when asked how they feel when a statisitc agrees or disagrees with a previously held belief. I felt these results gave valuable insight on how people feel towards statistics in relation with their own speculations.
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Confident
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Empowered
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Like the numbers are on my side
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That my opinion is widely accepted
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Affirmed, correct
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Knowledgeable
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Validated
Although, someone responded:
Indifferent, I try understand the equation and motivation for the statistic. It is very easy to manipulate data to represent the point you are trying to express.
When you are presented with a statistic that you agree with or that makes sense to you, how does it make you feel?
When you are presented with a statistic that you disagree with or that doesn't makes sense to you, how does it make you feel?
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Challenged
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Annoyed, Confused
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Frustrated, Skeptical
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It makes me question my understandings and potentially reconsider my thoughts.
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Uneasy about my own opinions or about being on the other side of the statistic
Although, someone responded:
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I look to see how the person got the statistic; it's easy to lie with statistics
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I look deeper at the data and the issue
The Many Unknowns
Although my study brought an abundance of confusion and misunderstanding to the surface, I was pleased to see that there was also a large amount of curiousity and interest in the area of statistics. Here are some of the most insightful questions I received when I asked the survey takers "What is your biggest question about statistics? This could be about the field in general, the math behind it, or a specific statistic that you have seen."
How accurate are statistics when taking into account outside factors?
How does the world look at statistics? Only with numbers?
How are such complex statistics used in the real world?
How do companies use statistics to forecast data based on historical information?
Do the use advanced statistical models or just the basic ones?
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF STATISTICS
Not only are statistics powerful in the way they are used, but also in the way they are viewed. Primarily, statistics are intimidating to the human mind. There is a preconceived idea that because statistical reasoning is complex and detailed, everyone will struggle. Therefore, the brain tends to react to statistics in two distinct ways: by distorting them and by ignoring them.
Distortion
There is a widespread psychological misperception of statistics. An outstanding illustration of this concept is a study done by theguardian.com, an eminent news blog in the UK. They surveyed a group of individuals whom expressed that they think the percentage of Muslims in the UK is 21% when in reality it is only is 5%. Evidently, the human mind has a tendency to exaggerate or understate numbers based on their own opinions and experiences. This bias to numbers is how statistics can be used to distort our perception.
In 2014, two experts in data and global perspective, Hans and Ola Rosling, gave a TED Talk that encapsulates this concept of statistical misinterpretation. First, they discussed how the average mind immediately gravitates towards the best, the worst, or the most relevant to them. The typical person sees the world, and the statistics that explain it, upside down due to four key factors: personal bias, an outdated worldview, bias in the news and media, and the illusion of confidence embedded in human intuition.
Furthermore, the Rosling's discuss a program called “The Ignorance Project” which attempts to supply the average person with skills to better understand the statistics of our world. They inform the audience that most things improve and advance, therefore, people should see the world positively when analyzing statistical trends. Next, they contradict the human instinct to focus on extremes by declaring that most people usually fall in the middle. Finally, they encourage people to avoid exaggeration, giving the example that instead of thinking “sharks are very dangerous” we should think “sharks kill few”. With this calculated and rational view of statistics, the Rosling's believe humans will overcome their natural distortion for a better understanding of their present and future world.
Whether the distorting or ignoring, it is important to understand the way that our brains process statistics and statistical reasoning. With a more intuitive comprehension, the average person can better assess and utilize the statistics around them.